Year-end inflation and dollar forecast according to the Central Bank survey


According to the Central Bank’s Market Participants Survey, year-end inflation and dollar forecasts fell. The year-end inflation expectation of the participants was 66.80 percent. Year-end dollar expectation decreased from 19.54 to 18.78.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published the Market Participants Survey for December, which was conducted with 44 participants consisting of real and financial sector representatives and professionals.

The CPI increase expectation in December, which was 3.16 percent last month, decreased to 2.69 percent in this survey period. The expectation for an increase in CPI for the end of the current year, covering the January-December period, decreased from 68.06 percent to 66.80 percent. Expectations for an increase in CPI fell from 37.47 percent to 34.92 percent in 12 months, and from 20.76 percent to 20.56 percent in 24 months. While the year-end dollar/TL expectation of the participants was 18.78, the 12-month dollar/TL expectation decreased from 23.35 to 22.77. In the November survey, this expectation was determined as 19.82.

The year-end current account deficit expectation, which was 48.8 billion dollars in the previous survey period, decreased to 46.7 billion dollars in this period. The current account deficit expectation for the next year was 30.6 billion dollars. INTEREST EXPECTATION

While the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase expectation for the current year decreased from 5.1 percent to 5 percent, it was maintained at 4.1 percent for the next year. The expectations for the CBRT’s policy rate for the end of the current month and for the next 3 months were also determined as 9 percent. The policy rate expectation for the end of next year was 14.86 percent.

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